Lithium carbonate futures listed pressure, can attract how many participants enter?

At 9 am on July 21, 2023, lithium carbonate futures were officially listed for trading in Guangzhou Futures Exchange. Since the listing, the first trading day of the main contract fell by the limit, the third day up by the limit, a few days ago, the close of 227,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.59%, price volatility is still large.

Analysts pointed out that the high volatility of lithium carbonate futures prices is in line with market expectations, and the recent sharp drop in new energy automobile stocks and off-season factors have spread market pessimism, and lithium carbonate futures prices are under pressure. Looking forward to the future market, the lithium carbonate industry chain shows initial signs of structural excess, and the price center of gravity is expected to continue to move down in the second half of the year.

Lithium carbonate, known as "white oil", is widely used in new energy vehicles, energy storage, glass, ceramics, medicine and other fields. In the past two years, industrial enterprises have suffered from the volatility of lithium carbonate prices, and in the first day of trading of lithium carbonate futures, many industrial customers have participated in seeking refuge.

"This reflects the necessity and timeliness of listing lithium carbonate futures as an industrial risk management tool." Chen Jing, a researcher at Galaxy Futures, said that from the fundamental point of view, starting from the second half of this year, the supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate is expected to gradually shift from a tight balance to surplus, and the surplus situation will be further expanded in 2024. The industrial chain is currently showing initial signs of structural excess, but all links are still profitable and are still attracting more participants.

"From a fundamental point of view, it is expected that the lithium carbonate market in 2023 will see a double increase in supply and demand, but the relatively higher supply growth rate will bring about a looser supply and demand balance." Overall, in the second half of 2023, the pressure above the price of lithium carbonate is large, the probability of demand growth is difficult to fight against production capacity, and the price center of gravity is expected to decline significantly." South China Futures (603093) analyst Xia Yingying believes.

It is undeniable that the listing of lithium carbonate futures can effectively attract domestic enterprises and capital participation, digest market information, calm price fluctuations, and provide a fair price index for the market. At the same time, it can also guide more capital to enter the industry, form a more diversified trade program, and provide certain guarantees for lithium resource development projects, indirectly promoting the development and construction progress of global lithium resource projects.

However, some experts believe that short-term pessimism may be released in the early days of lithium carbonate futures listing, taking into account the global market of lithium carbonate surplus is relatively limited, the market supply and demand in July is still in a tight balance, the surplus trend will be more reflected in 2024, so lithium carbonate futures prices near 200,000 yuan/ton there is strong support, short-term or there is an overfall rebound, The operation is recommended to light warehouse.